ALARMING CONSEQUENCES

SANJAYA DHAKAL

Although the share of this small and impoverished Himalayan Kingdom, itself, in the global emission of the Green House Gases (GHGs) is almost nil, the consequences of global warming and climate change are more sharply felt here with the receding snowlines, Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) events, flash floods and so on.

Over the last couple of years, flash floods, frequent landslides, hazy winter, hotter summers have been felt by the country, which experts say could be the consequences of the climate change.

“The average temperature of Nepal is rising by 0.5 degrees Celsius per decade,” said Purushottam Kunwar, an official who looks after the climate change sector at the Ministry of Population and Environment.

As Nepal is home to mighty Himalayas, the global warming has increased the pace of snow melting, which, in turn, has made glacial lakes to swell. The United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) had warned half a decade ago that 20 big glacial lakes in Nepal are at the risk of GLOF, which could trigger huge loss of lives and properties.

Different reports suggest that the frequency of GLOF event has increased in the recent past. “Five GLOF events occurred in Nepal from 1977 to 1998 according to the records and based on the study of satellite images,” said Sandeep Chamling Rai, a climate change officer at the World Wildlife Fund (WWF-Nepal Program). The WWF-Nepal is acting as a member secretary organization of the Climate Change Network Nepal, which includes a number of domestic and international environmental bodies keeping watch on the global warming and its impacts on Nepal.

One of the most discerning consequences of the climate change could be the Tsho Rolpa glacial lake situated in the Rolwaling valley, north of capital Kathmandu. “That lake was of around 0.23 square km area in 1950. It has swollen to 1.7 square km in area now,” said Dr. Madan Lal Shrestha, director general at the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.

The UNEP had issued dire warnings about its bursting and predicted that it could incur tremendous loss of lives and properties if it burst triggering flashfloods in rivers downstream. It was reported that the Tsho Rolpa GLOF could affect people living as far away as 100 km downstream. Immediately after the UNEP warning, the department with the help of Dutch agency started the Tsho Rolpa Risk Reduction Project, which has till now siphoned off a huge quantity of water and has already brought down the water level by 3 m. The moraine dam of this lake is 150 m high and the UNEP has said that the water level needs to be brought down by at least 20 m to make it safe.

Smaller GLOF have been frequently reported in the past few decades. On September 3, 1998, the Sabai Tsho GLOF occurred killing two persons and washing away fields and trekking trails of Solukhumbu district, which is home to Mount Everest. Likewise, on September of 1997, Dudh Koshi GLOF occurred destroying a mini hydro plant there. On July 1991, Chilbung lake burst damaging houses of Beding village of Rolwaling valley.

“These are only few examples. The GLOFs used to occur in the past as well, but their frequency has increased of late because of rising pace of snow melting thanks to rise in temperature,” said Dr. Shrestha.

As recent as on August 2003, Kawari glacier lake, situated at the foothill of Annapurna II Mountain, burst destroying properties worth around US$ 100,000. Five people were also killed and dozens rendered homeless by this incident. According to Rai, the inventory carried out by the ICIMOD (Integrated Center for Mountain Development) and UNEP have shown that there are 26 potential dangerous glacial lakes in Nepal.

The fast melting of snow not only means GLOF but also receding snow line as well as receding glacial rivers. “The Rikhasambha glacier river, located in north-western Dhaulagiri valley, has receded by 100 m distance between 1974 and 1994. Such recession of glacial rivers is also seen elsewhere,” said Dr. Shrestha.

As consequences of disturbance in mountain climate, the country has been suffering from flash-floods, cloud-bursts, erratic weather patterns and so on. Every year, the number of people dying in floods and landslides increase. In the year 2003 alone, more than 300 people died of floods and landslides across the country. The spatial variability of the monsoon conditions bring natural calamities like floods and landslides in some region while severe drought conditions occur in other parts, say climatologists.

“In Nepal’s context, the rise in temperature results enlargement of existing glacial lakes, attributes to frequent landslides and floods, contributes to high potential of GLOF events, destroys huge amount of crops due to hot air flow and so on,” said Rai.

Kunwar, the government official at the Ministry of Population and Environment, adds that the climate change have been responsible for erratic weather patterns like thick haze on Terai (southern plains) area of the country during winter season. “The haze destroys cash crops of this region, which is the breadbasket of the country. And due to delay in the regular snow falls, the people living in western Himalayan region are increasingly suffering from outbreaks of viral influenza and other diseases,” said Kunwar.

Rai says that WWF-Nepal will soon be making a detailed study on the impact of climate change in Nepal. “At present we don’t have a comprehensive report of sorts. But we fear that even bio-diversity may have been affected by the change in climate. This could be particularly true in a country like Nepal where you find different bio-diversities at different altitudes and climate conditions,” said Rai.

According to Kunwar, Nepal is already a party to the international convention on climate change and is working on to ratify the Kyoto protocol. But despite its utmost concerns, Nepal might not be able to cope with the challenge thrown open by the global warming alone, say government officials.

“It is very disappointing that while Nepal does not emit much GHGs, it has to face the consequences of actions of other developed countries. Due to their actions, our white gold (mountains) may be at threat,” said Bhairab Risal, a senior environmental journalist of Nepal.