By Garda Ghista
Global climate change is an issue ignored and denied by the US and Australian governments, while simultaneously creating huge concerns and tensions in the British, Japanese and other governments around the world. Do US and Australia have a moral right to ignore this issue, as demonstrated by their refusal to sign the Kyoto Protocol? Are the Protocol signers – more than 130 countries – justified in their concerns over the likely devastating impact of global warming – in large part caused by US carbon dioxide emissions? While Brennan and Withgott uphold the precautionary principle included in the 1992 Rio Declaration, and continue to consider opposing viewpoints, numerous recent newspaper articles indicate that global warming is occurring far faster than originally calculated by atmospheric scientists, which means its impact in the form of rising sea levels with consequent devastation to the earth’s low-lying areas is far more imminent than previously predicted. While current official projections state that sea level will rise 20-35 inches by the year 2100, it is clear from recent articles that the ice caps, ice shelves and glaciers are melting far more rapidly than earlier anticipated, which means that what was predicted for 2100 is very likely to happen in the next 15-25 years!
Greenhouse Gases
Global warming refers to the increase in the earth’s average surface temperature, irrespective of what causes that increase. Global climate change refers to any changes in the earth’s climate, such as temperature, precipitation, storm intensity and frequency, change in barometric pressure. There are three main factors contributing to global climate change: the sun, by which our planet receives heat and energy; the atmosphere, which keeps our global climate manageably warm; and the oceans, which transport heat and moisture to human populated areas. Most incoming radiation to the earth from the sun has wavelengths shorter than 290 nanometers (nm), and is absorbed in the earth’s atmosphere by ozone and oxygen. Consequently, this radiation never reaches the earth’s surface. Radiation from the sun with wavelengths between 300 and 800 nm does not get absorbed by the earth’s atmospheric gases and does reach the earth’s surface. When the earth absorbs solar radiation, its temperature rises. Certain gases, such as carbon dioxide, water vapor, ozone, nitrous oxide, halocarbons (which include chlorofluorocarbons, hydrochlorofluorocarbons and methane) absorb the infrared radiation released by the earth’s surface and thereby warm the surface by releasing energy known as greenhouse gases. These greenhouse gases have existed in the earth’s atmosphere for billions of years. However, it is only in the last 250-300 years that the density of these gases in our atmosphere increased with unusual, even alarming rapidity. Hence, while in the past global climate change happened as a result of natural interaction of the earth’s gases with heat and energy coming from the sun, the recent human factor has caused the greenhouse effect to skyrocket!
The Human Causal Factor
Three greenhouse gases – carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide – lead to global warming, with the primary greenhouse gas being carbon dioxide. While there is a wide spectrum of opinion regarding global climate change, scientists do agree on one point – that human beings have greatly contributed to a recent rapid rise in carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere. The carbon dioxide concentrations have increased by 33 percent, moving from 280 parts per million (ppm) in the late 1700s to 316 ppm in 1959 to 373 ppm in 2002. Concentrations of carbon dioxide are at their highest level in 400,000 years, and probably also the highest in the last 20 million years. The worry is the speed of increase in concentration, and the causes of that speed. Due to the decay of organic matter over millenniums, the fossil fuels called coal, oil and natural gas have lodged in the upper layers of the earth’s lithosphere and have created huge carbon reservoirs. However, in the past 200 years human beings have extracted and burned large quantities of these fossil fuels, thus converting carbon in the lithosphere to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Millions of hectares of forests, which serve as carbon sinks, have been chopped down, leading to increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide. Levels of methane have also risen sharply. It comes from tapping fossil fuel deposits, from factory farms – from the cattle, which produce methane in their digestive tracts, and from certain agricultural crops such as rice. Nitrous oxide concentrations have risen sharply and are a by-product of feedlots, chemical manufacturing plants, car emissions, and modern agricultural methods. Ozone concentrations have increased 36 percent in the last 200 years, and are responsible for nasal congestion, allergies and smog.
Milankovitch Cycles
Global climate change can be caused by factors other than the earth’s atmosphere. In the 1920s a Serbian mathematician named Milutin Milankovitch analyzed and described three kinds of changes, or cycles, in the earth’s rotation around the sun. The first is an axial wobble that occurs on a 19,000-to-23,000-year cycle. The second is a shift in the tilt of the earth’s axis. This occurs over a 3-degree range on a 41,000-year cycle. The third cycle is the variation in the earth’s orbit as it moves in a near circular direction to an elliptical direction. This cycle occurs every 100,000 years. Each of these occurrences has an effect on the amount of solar radiation reaching the earth’s surface. The cycles also change the way solar radiation is distributed on the earth’s surface, thus historically triggering the onset of events as major as the ice ages!
Sarkar’s Pole Shift Theory
Related to the Milankovitch cycles involving global climate change based on shifting of the earth’s axis is the pole shift theory of ecologist Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar. According to Sarkar, the shifting of poles took place several times in the past, not only in the history of the earth but in the history of other planets also. When this occurs, it brings great changes, including changes in the order of the seasons. For this very reason, today the seasons are no longer maintaining adjustment with their respective months. A new pole shift will disturb both the environmental order as well as the ecological order of the earth. Physical and biological changes will have to take place in all living bodies, including plants, in order to adjust to the new ecosystem. Sarkar says that in the eastern hemisphere the north pole is already moving from north to south, and in the western hemisphere the south pole is moving from south to north. In this case, what will happen? The polar ice will melt, ocean levels will rise and impact tidal waves throughout the globe. As a result of this pole shift, the magnetic structure of the earth will change, causing metamorphosis on other nearby planets. If the poles shift quickly, it can herald the occurrence of a new ice age. According to recent news reports, the polar ice is already melting at a rate far faster than anticipated. Whether this accelerated melting is occurring due solely to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions or also to shifting of the earth’s magnetic poles remains to be researched and ascertained by atmospheric and geological scientists.
Oceans
Oceans also affect climate. Oceans are able to absorb heat from the atmosphere and also move energy from one location to another via their currents. The most well-known relationship between oceans and climate is referred to as El Nino and El Nina, which refer to temperature shifts in ocean surface waters in the middle latitudes of the western Pacific Ocean over two-seven year periods. When equatorial winds weaken and allow warm Pacific waters to move eastward, thus blocking cold water from growing in the eastern Pacific, the El Nino effect is in place. The El Nina effect refers to the presence of abnormally cold surface waters that extend far westward into the equatorial Pacific. Both El Nina and El Nino affect global temperature and precipitation patterns. In the Atlantic Ocean, the warm equatorial surface water moves northward carrying heat into the northern latitudes and thus keeping Europe relatively warm. As this warm surface water becomes dense and sinks, it is referred to as North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). If this process of creating NADW is disturbed or stops altogether, big changes would occur as a result of the warming of the northern areas. The Greenland Ice Sheet would begin to melt, with a consequent run-off of warm fresh water into the North Atlantic Ocean. This could disturb the NADW process and result in a major cooling of Northern Europe.
The Evidence
Concentrations of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere have risen steeply since 1958. According to Charles Keeting of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla, California, during the period 1958 to 2000, carbon dioxide concentrations have increased from 315 ppm to 373 ppm. This is a major increase in a short span of time. In addition, coupled general circulation models (CGCMs), which are computer programs combining all that is known regarding weather patterns, atmosphere and atmosphere-ocean circulation to predict future climate change. In 2001 there were 14 CGCM labs operating around the world. In some studies prediction of climate change is based using data from natural climate-changing factors alone. In other studies predictions are based on anthropogenic (man-made) factors only. Still other studies incorporate data from both sources. Still another widely respected source for climate information is the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Established by the United Nations Environment Program (UEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1988, the IPCC comprises of a panel of international atmospheric scientists, climate experts and government representatives whose job is to study information related to human-induced climate change. In 2001 the IPCC released its Third Assessment Report, presenting a consensus of international atmospheric scientists on the issue of present and future trends on global climate change. Their conclusions focused on changes in surface temperature; snow and ice cover; rising sea level and warmer oceans; precipitation patterns; effects on wildlife; and effects on human civilizations. According to the IPCC, average surface temperatures already increased by 0.6 degrees C in the 20th century. The report further stated that glaciers, snow cover, ice shelves and ice caps are melting, and that hundreds of species of plants and animals are shifting both their geographic ranges and the timing of their life cycles. Cold and frost days decreased for nearly all land areas. Continental precipitation increased 5-10% in the Northern hemisphere. The 1990s were the warmest decade of the last 1,000 years. Droughts increased in frequency and severity. The average sea level increased 4-8 inches in the 20th century. Rivers and lakes in the Northern hemisphere were covered for a two-week shorter time period annually. The Arctic sea ice thinned by 10-40% in recent decades. Mountaintop glaciers retreated while global snow cover decreased ten percent since the 1960s. Permafrost thawed, warmed and degraded in many regions. El Nino events became more frequent and more intense over the past 40 years in the Northern hemisphere, and the growing season lengthened, also in the northern latitudes. Due to the warmer temperatures the geographic ranges of many plants, insects, birds and fish moved towards the poles and upwards. Plants flower earlier, birds migrate sooner, animals breed earlier and insects appear earlier in the Northern hemisphere.
Consequences of Global Climate Change
Negative consequences of global warming are numerous. Glaciers are shrinking, leading to large quantities of fresh water ice liquefying and merging into the ocean, which is already causing significant rise in sea level. The second reason for rising sea level is the warmer temperatures of ocean water that cause that water to expand. This factor even more than melting glaciers will lead to rising sea level (RSL). Already low-lying islands such as the Maldives, Tonga, Fiji, Japan, French Polynesia, Seychelles and the Galapagos Islands have been affected. The US coastline will clearly be affected by rising sea levels - specifically the Big Bend area of Florida’s Gulf coast, New Orleans, Houston, Charleston (SC) as well as Boston and New York City. Parts of New Orleans, which are already seven feet below average sea level, have seawalls and dikes in place, while one million acres of Louisiana wetlands are now open water. Trees are dying in the coastal areas where saltwater has merged with the groundwater. Coastal wetlands and mangroves in southern Florida are already being submerged by RSL, and Florida faces losing coastal wetlands and fresh water supplies due to saltwater intrusion. Other events caused by global climate change will be more droughts, floods and temperature extremes, which threaten both farmers and forests. It means more forest fires. Trees now abundant in New England such as the sugar maple will become extinct, unable to survive the warmer temperatures. Farmland unable to cope with resulting water shortages will suffer, and hence crops will fail. This will lead to decreased crop production in tropical and subtropical regions. People living in colder regions may be positively affected as warmer temperatures will lead to longer growing seasons. Coastal wetlands and real estate will both be affected by rising sea level. Global water shortages will reach emergency levels. According to the IPCC, five billion people (out of a total 8.4 billion global population) will face shortage of fresh water by 2025. Melting permafrost will render Alaskan roads and buildings unstable. As temperatures rise, what were formerly Mediterranean climates will change to subtropical and tropical climates, with accompanying diseases and infections. Cholera, typhoid, dengue fever and malaria along with sanitation problems leading to dysentery and other waterborne diseases will become common where previously they never existed.
The Debate
International atmospheric and environmental scientists agree that global climate change is occurring. Where they disagree is on: (1) the speed at which these changes are occurring today, and (2) preventive action (or inaction) human beings should undertake. Policy makers, economists and government leaders disagree on what should be the appropriate response to these global changes. For example, who should take responsibility for global warming and greenhouse emissions – all countries or only industrialized western countries? Another question involves cost-benefit analysis: will it cost more to fix the problem before it happens or to repair the damage afterwards? “Yale University economist William Nordhaus estimates that implementing the Kyoto Protocol on climate change would cost the US $2.5 trillion over the next ten years…” and will do little to halt the advance of global warming. Should national changes to reduce greenhouse emissions be done on a voluntary basis, or should these changes become mandatory - a part of international law with economic sanctions imposed on countries that refuse to cooperate? Electricity production in the US accounts for the greatest portion of US greenhouse emissions. Through education of the people, Americans, for example, can learn to curb their electricity consumption both in the home and the workplace. Auto emissions account for the second largest portion of greenhouse gases. Breaking the market stranglehold of car manufacturers and their lobbyists and bringing back the trains that once criss-crossed the entire US can reduce auto emissions. Hydroelectric power, geothermal energy and wind power if put into wide use will certainly aid in reducing greenhouse emissions.
Imminent Danger
The Arctic region is warming so fast that it threatens millions of livelihoods and may wipe out polar bears by 2100, according to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). The extent of sea ice around the North Pole has already reduced by 15-20 percent in the past 30 years. Buildings from Canada and Alaska to Russia are collapsing because of thawing permafrost underneath, which is also destabilizing oil pipelines, roads and airports. Sir David King told delegates at a conference on climate change in Berlin that the Greenland ice sheet will not survive, and that “humanity had better be prepared for a complete realignment of the coastal zones, where most of the world’s major cities are sited.” Parts of the ice sheet have already retreated 30 feet in just the past few years. If the entire ice cap disappears, sea levels would rise by 20 feet, obliterating most of London, New York, Tokyo, Mumbai, Kolkata and other large coastal cities. While Britons and Americans appear oblivious to the imminent danger of evaporating ice shelves wrought by climate changes, the Dutch, Germans and other Europeans in contrast have a solid grasp of what lies ahead. According to John Schellnhuber, research director of the Tyndall Center in Britain, the coming climate change could bankrupt Britain. If the Greenland ice sheets continue to melt at the present rate, the consequent rising sea level would inundate much of southern and eastern England. Sir David King, the government’s chief scientist, has said that the global warming taking place today is a far greater danger than “terrorism,” and is the biggest danger to face civilization in the past 5,000 years!
Global Cooperation
The ancient and wise guidelines of the Iroquois nation state: “In our every deliberation, we must consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations.” Most scientists today conclude that the threat arising from global warming and resulting climate change is real, huge and imminent. It is disgraceful that the present US and Australian administrations choose to ignore the issue and look out for one thing alone – the profits of mega-corporations that prefer not to spend money to fix their part in corrupting the earth’s atmosphere! For this reason Bush pulled the US out of the 126-nation Kyoto Protocol in 2001 and again in 2004. Capitalists do not care seven generations into the future. They do not even care for the future of their own children! They care for themselves alone, and for their profits! While Germany from the period 1990-1998 proved to the world that despite being technologically advanced, it is possible to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and still remain economically viable as a country, yet other countries were not voluntarily reducing their carbon dioxide levels. Hence the Kyoto Protocol was drafted in Kyoto, Japan in 1997. The Protocol is a binding agreement on signatories to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in their respective countries, each by a certain percentage point. The chart below shows observed changes in the period 1990-1999 and required changes in the period 1990-2010.
Greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels are blanketing our planet and driving up temperatures and will only accelerate the frequency of catastrophic floods, storms, droughts and rising sea levels by minimum one meter. India and China are rising economies having big demands for fossil fuels. Asia stands to face one climate extreme after the other, particularly with poor farmers facing droughts, floods, heat waves, disease and food shortages. In 2004 Japan was hit by ten typhoons while Bangladesh, parts of Nepal and northeastern India were flooded, affecting 50 million people via homelessness, joblessness and illness. We can already witness the effects of global warming in these local devastations and expansive human sufferings. Rising sea waters will cause future devastation to farmers, inundating their rice fields with sea water and rendering the land unfit for agriculture. According to Steve Sawyer, climate policy adviser with Greenpeace in Amsterdam, both India and Bangladesh will have to draw up permanent relocation plans for millions of its citizens. Bangladesh climatologist Anwar Ali says that if sea levels rise by one meter, then 15 percent of the country will be under water. It is the rich countries that must take care of the poor countries by radically reducing their own greenhouse gas emissions. Otherwise it will be the rich who must take care of millions of poor people rendered homeless during floods, droughts and lack of fresh water supplies. Rich countries should create a legal category for ‘environmental refugees,’ and be ready to receive those millions of homeless immigrants! As always, in the time of global climate crisis and ensuing natural catastrophes, it is the millions of poor people who will suffer maximally. This collective cooperation demonstrated by members of the Kyoto Protocol has become a prerequisite for the future safety of the earth and millions of its inhabitants. Those who refuse to participate in collective cooperation must nevertheless be held accountable for their destructive actions via international law and economic sanctions. Stern legal measures are the need of the hour to prevent wholesale damage to millions of lives. There is no alternative. Alongside legal measures, our prime task is to educate the people and help prepare them for what lies ahead.
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Notes
1. Representatives of all 179 nations who attended the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development Earth Summit, held in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, signed the Rio Declaration. This was the largest international conference ever held with the purpose of unifying nations on the issue of sustainable development. The nations present signed five documents, including the Framework Convention on Climate Change, which outlined a plan for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The precautionary principle states: “In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by the States according to their capabilities. Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”
2. Scott Brennan and Jay Withgott: Environment: The Science Behind the Stories, San Francisco: Pearson Education, Inc. 2005, p. 359.
3. Ibid, p. 360.
4. Ibid.
5. Ibid, p. 362.
6. Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar, “The Poles Shift Their Respective Positions,” in P.R. Sarkar, A Few Problems Solved, Calcutta: Ananda Marga Publications, 1986.
7. Prabhat Ranjan Sarkar, “The Coming Ice Age,” in P.R. Sarkar, Prout in a Nutshell, Calcutta: Ananda Marga Publications, 1990.
8. Brennan and Withgott, Environment: The Science Behind the Stories, p. 362.
9. The Spanish-speaking fishermen on the Pacific coast of South America, who first encountered the unusually warm surface currents while fishing, named the phenomenon as El Nino. El Nino means “the little boy” or “the Christ child.” El Nino hurts local ecology by altering the local marine food web, which affects the fish and bird populations. El Nina means “the little girl.”
10. Brennan and Withgott, p. 366.
11. Ibid, p. 372.
12. This is a positive impact of global warming and climate change mentioned by Brennan and Withgott, which would affect the northern US.
13. Brennan and Withgott, Environment: The Science Behind the Stories, p. 374.
14. Bob Williams, “The Benefits of Global Climate Change,” in Brennan and Withgott, p. 378.
15. Geoffrey Lean, “Global Warming ‘Will Redraw Map of World,’” The Independent, 07 November 2004.
16. Mark Townsend, “Don’t Say We Haven’t Been Warned,” Guardian, 07 November 2004.
17. Allister Doyle, “Fast Arctic Thaw Threatens People, Polar Bears,” Reuters, 09 November, 2004.
18. David Fogarty, “Asia Faces Living Nightmare From Climate Change,” Planet Ark, 26 November 2004.
