Southeast Asia: Myanmar's long march to civilian rule

It is the start of a fresh attempt to turn Myanmar's ruling State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) into a civilian body in preparation for the political change that will be ushered in under a new constitution, which is expected to be promulgated in the next two years.

Toward that end, SPDC chairman General Than Shwe is also planning significant policy changes, including a new program of economic liberalization and government assistance to strengthen the country's private sector.

The planned changes notably also coincide with the regime's new crackdown on corruption. Several top customs officials, including the department's director general, have recently been detained and are soon expected to be charged with corruption. The investigations have broadened to include several other economic ministries and perhaps even the central bank, according to diplomatic sources in Yangon.

The personnel changes represent the second major revamp in recent months. A cabinet shuffle in May saw two deputy information ministers, Thein Sein and Brigadier-General Aung Thein, lose their jobs for undisclosed reasons. Deputy defense minister Major-General Khin Maung Win; deputy mines minister Myint Thein; deputy culture minister Brigadier-General Soe Win Maung; the deputy minister of border areas and national races and development affairs, Brigadier-General Than Tun; deputy minister of industry Thein Tun; and deputy transport minister Pe Thein were all also nudged into retirement.

Their replacements are yet to be announced, but sources in Yangon say they are likely to be drawn from a younger generation of graduates from the National Defense College. This may be Than Shwe's way of keeping General Maung Aye, the SPDC's second-ranking officer, in the system while reducing his influence, according to a senior Asian diplomat familiar with the situation.

Maung Aye is seen as Than Shwe's only potential challenger inside the junta after the October 2004 internal purge that ousted from the SPDC General Khin Nyunt, former prime minister and powerful intelligence chief. Maung Aye and Khin Nyunt had for years jockeyed for power and influence inside the SPDC. Now Than Shwe's reorganization of the government is designed to clip Maung Aye's wings, according to Yangon-based diplomats.

For instance, many of the regional military commanders known to be loyal to Maung Aye were moved after the SPDC's last quarterly meeting, which was held in the new capital Pyinmana, where the junta abruptly moved the government late last year.

"He is replicating his usual approach of pitting potential junior rivals against each other to create a balance of power," said independent Myanmar analyst Win Min, who is based in the northern Thai city of Chiang Mai.

Now that the war office and the government administration are up and running in the new capital, Than Shwe is again turning his attention to the country's political future. The national-reconciliation process, as the military regime calls its plans for political reform, has been substantially delayed, partly because of the junta's move to the new capital, partly because of the uncertainty due to the surprise purge of Khin Nyunt's military intelligence apparatus in October 2004.

Hundreds of his supporters were sentenced to long jail terms for a wide array of charges, including alleged corruption and other economic crimes. Since then Than Shwe has been primarily concerned with consolidating his own power within the army and the country's administration.

Meanwhile, the National Convention, which is in the process of drafting a new constitution, is scheduled to resume its deliberations this year. Foreign Minister Nyan Win told his counterparts in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations in April that the constitution would not be completed for at least another two years.

Once completed, the new charter will be put to a referendum and general elections will be held some time after that, according to the SPDC's so-called "roadmap to democracy". The main opposition National League for Democracy (NLD) won a landslide victory the last time general elections were held in Myanmar, and the opposition has since maintained that the 1990 poll results should be upheld.

But indications are that the SPDC plans on managing its political transition without the NLD's participation. The junta has recently intensified its campaign of harassment against the NLD, moving to immobilize or eliminate the pro-democracy party as well as organized ethnic rebel groups, most of which have signed ceasefire pacts with the military government.

At the same time, Myanmar's top general is reportedly considering giving up at least one, and possibly two, of the three key posts he currently holds - chairman of the SPDC, army supreme commander and defense minister.

"We expect Than Shwe to relinquish his position as defense minister as part of the forthcoming reshuffle," said an Asian diplomat based in Yangon.

Meanwhile, the SPDC is expected to be renamed the State Democracy and Development Council within the next few months, indicating the next step from military to civilian rule. Since the army seized power, the military rulers have once before changed the junta's formal name from the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) to the SPDC in 1997. Nine years later it would not be a surprise if it changed the name again, partly because nine is regarded as an auspicious number in Burman astrology.

The idea would be that the ruling council would remain the highest political authority overseeing both a military council and a civilian cabinet. The military command would be replaced by a military council - led by third-ranking SPDC officer General Thura Swe Mann, but with Than Shwe also serving on the body.

"The idea has probably been adopted from the Chinese, and Than Shwe plans to follow [late Chinese leader] Deng Xiaoping's example after he resigns his official government and party posts," Win Min said.

The cabinet, meanwhile, is already being fully transformed to civilian status: ministers have recently lost their military rank upon appointment to government posts. Even Prime Minister Soe Win recently relinquished his official military post and stripes.

Chinese officials believe Than Shwe will stand down this year so that he can become the civilian president under a new constitution.

"He wants to be president for life," a senior military source close to him said.

Although the new generation of generals may take responsibility for the day-to-day running of the country and execute the seven-stage roadmap to democracy, Than Shwe is still expected to remain the power behind the throne.(Source: Inter Press Service)